Odd Arne Westad, Elihu Professor of History and Global Affairs at Yale University, was joined by former Ambassador of the U.S. to China Nicholas Burns at Yale Center Beijing on February 10 for a talk about Westad’s forthcoming book, The Coming Storm.

By Xinfei Zhang

Do rising international tensions across regions and domains signal a heightened risk of global war? On February 10, Odd Arne Westad, the Elihu Professor of History and Global Affairs at Yale University, addressed this question at Yale Center Beijing in a discussion of his forthcoming book, The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History.

More than 140 attendees joined the event, including over 80 Yale alumni and friends onsite and 62 online. Co-hosted by the Royal Asiatic Society, Beijing (RASBJ), the Yale Club of Beijing, and Yale Center Beijing, the event was moderated by Nicholas Burns, former Ambassador of the U.S. to China and the Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard Kennedy School.

As one of the world’s foremost historians of the Cold War and great power relations, Professor Westad was inspired to write this new book after completing his three award-winning works—The Global Cold War, Restless Empire, and The Cold War: A World History. He observed that today’s world increasingly resembles that of a century ago, prompting him to explore historical parallels and their implications for our time.

“This is not just a book about death, doom, and destruction,” Westad emphasized, noting that historical comparison should serve not as predictions, but as warning. “It’s also a book about what people can do and should do today to avoid that kind of scenario that we were looking at in the early part of the 20th century.”

While acknowledging that today’s challenges differ from those of the Cold War era, Westad cautioned that exceptional care is needed to avoid repeating past mistakes. The current landscape, he noted, reflects “a set of rivalries and conflicts that could easily lead to something that all of us want to avoid—and that is a Great Powers war.”

He suggested several stabilizing factors that could help mitigate risks, including engagement between top leaders in China and the United States, military-to-military communication, sustained diplomacy, strengthened trade and communication channels, careful management of regional flashpoints, and the rebuilding of international institutions.

Moderating the discussion, Ambassador Burns underscored the book’s relevance in today’s highly competitive global environment and reflected on his experience managing U.S.-China relations. “I don’t think war is inevitable,” Burns said. “Individuals can make a difference in the way they approach these problems, and that does give me some hope that with a lot of work and with connectedness between the two countries, we can avoid the worst.”

The discussion concluded with questions from the audience in Beijing and online, many focusing on U.S.-China relations and the evolving global balance of power. 

This event marked Professor Westad’s fifth engagement—both onsite and virtually—at Yale Center Beijing, and the first of two visits to China this spring. He is scheduled to return to China in March to lead students from Yale’s Jackson School of Global Affairs in the Yale-Renmin Student Dialogue. As Yale University’s only university-wide physical center outside the United States, Yale Center Beijing continues to serve as a convening space for intellectual exchanges, connecting Yale faculty and students with alumni and broader communities in China and beyond.